Whew, long time no talk

I kind of already figured it would be awhile in between entries, but I've been very busy lately and I tend to forget the smaller things.

Winter has been pretty brutal this year despite the La Nina conditions we were supposed to be under. Although I can't say for certain that we are out of the woods as far as winter storms are concerned, I can say that with the seasons changing any snow we do get will not stick around for long.

Things are gearing up/winding down (depending on how you look at it) as graduation nears. I'm optimistic although I have some trepidation as to whether or not I'll be able to get through this Differential Equations class intact. Higher end mathematics were never my strong suit.

I really do wish I could post more "interesting" things than just my random updates and ramblings, so maybe I'll try to post pictures and/or links every so often. For instance, if you're interested in growing a vegetable garden this spring/summer (which I'm actually contemplating doing), but you, like me, don't know how to go about it, there's a great "How-To" guide here:

e-how's guide to growing a vegetable garden

You'll also want to look at this accompanying map of Michigan's "Hardiness Zones": MI Hardiness Zones

Lastly, the average last frost dates in Michigan areas: Average Last Frost Dates in MI

Good luck on your gardening! I plan on trying my hand at some cucumbers and possibly potatoes, but we'll see. I have to find some space to grow this stuff, first. Have a great week!

Tsunamis and Earthquakes

My heart goes out to all those people in Japan and even those in Hawaii and the West Coast whom are bracing for the water.

I was going to get on here to just make a simple little blurb about how my spring break is going but all things considered it just doesn't seem that important right now. Things like this are why I can't understand why the government wants to cut funding to the NWS and other Natural Disaster Relief programs that specialize in preparedness for such events.

Well I'm not trying to make a political statement or anything. Just concerns me is all. I don't have a particular political party preference (say that three times fast!) as I pretty much think that both parties are capable of doing much good or much "evil" (evil is perhaps too strong a word, making things worse would be better). Just depends on the person elected.

Anyway, enough about that. Not much going on with my spring break as far as activities are concerned. I really haven't done much at all, which while that used to be very relaxing to me, kind of makes me uneasy. I've been studying up on ASOS (Aviation Weather Observation) tests to prepare for the real thing some day, but other than that I feel like I've kind of squandered all my free time. Ah well. A rest is much needed since this semester seems to have taken a larger toll on me than others prior.

Also, I'm sick of winter...I want spring to get here! I want the warmth, sunshine, and lately (call it spring fever) I am contemplating planting a small vegetable garden after I graduate. It might give me something to do with all that free time I'll inevitably have.

That's all from me. Hope all are doing well!

Forecasting is a humbling experience

There's nothing quite like feeling optimistic and hopeful only to be told you're wrong. Forecasting can be a very humbling experience for those who take it seriously. With all of today's technologies and past experiences, you'd think that we should have the weather pinned down by now. Sadly, nothing is farther from the truth. There are just too many factors, too many ways for things to go wrong that prevent forecasters from getting a forecast exactly right. The fact that we get anything right at any time is something to behold in and of itself. The atmosphere, the Earth, just has too many processes intricately working together to all be analyzed and scrutinized within any of our lifetimes. We're talking about trillions of calculations (no exaggeration) alone for just a 36 hour forecast.

Computers, however, can only do so much, and are as flawed as the humans who make them. I say all this because there are times when we, as forecasters, will make a forecast (say for just 24 hours out) and feel so very confident about everything coming together, only to find out that we couldn't be more wrong. What kind of person would choose a profession where they have to constantly be reminded of how little we know about the world?

Dedicated and humbled people, I would imagine. Now I'm not putting our profession up on a pedestal by any means. There are far more humbling and dedicated people out there I'm sure, but I wanted to clarify these points because there are so many people out there who blame meteorologists or forecasters for "screwing up" a forecast, when it's really just telling us something we already know. Try not to judge us too harshly. We're doing the best we can with what limited resources and technology we can.

I've been going through a bad slump of failed forecasts lately so I guess this has been weighing heavily on my mind. For the last several weeks it has seemed that the models will not agree on what the weather will do for two specific cities I'm forecasting for, and it can be really difficult to ascertain what will happen until after it has already occurred. I don't base my forecasts solely off of what the models tell us (as that would just be the computer forecasting, without human intuition and experience), but they do provide a good "jumping off" point, or basis for comparison.

Well anyway, I've rambled on far enough. I have yet another exam tomorrow that I need to be studying for. Ironically enough, it's for Numerical Weather Prediction (how the weather models work)!